Live calls¶

These are settlement calls I made while the event was still going on, before the market settled.

How each call works:

1. I write the call during the event: what happened, which markets it affects, whether I'd pause trading, and how I think it should settle under the published rules.
2. I commit it to this site's repository right away. The commit time is the record of when the call was made.
3. After settlement, I add what Kalshi actually did and how it compares. The original call is never edited after it's committed, which the commit history shows.

Where my call differed from the actual settlement, the entry explains why, including when I was the one who got it wrong.