Sports market operations casebook¶
I'm Ethan Zabenco. I work through how sports prediction markets should be listed and settled, especially when something goes sideways. A star player scratched before kickoff. A baseball game called for rain. A tennis walkover after an injury. A stat correction that flips a settled market.
I built this site while applying to sports market operations roles. Everything here comes from public sources: league rulebooks, sportsbook house rules, and Kalshi's published market rules, linked on every page.
What each case looks like¶
Each one walks through the event, what the rules say, and how Kalshi and a sportsbook settled it or would settle it. The judgment calls come at the bottom: the decisions an operator has to make before the settlement window closes.
Why this background fits¶
I spent five years in IT doing the same kind of work market ops depends on: monitoring live systems, working with data feeds, automating repetitive tasks, and writing runbooks so edge cases get handled the same way every time. On an NFL Sunday with dozens of markets settling at once, that's a large part of the job.
Live call record¶
Calls written during the event and committed before the market settled. The commit history is the timestamp.
| Calls made | Matched settlement | Differed | Awaiting settlement |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Recent entries¶
No entries yet.
What's on this site¶
- Casebook
- Edge cases worked through in full: what the rules say, how Kalshi and the books handle it, and what I would publish.
- Live calls
- Settlement calls made in real time, then compared with what actually happened.
- Proposals
- Markets I think are worth listing, and a few I'd turn down, with the reasoning.
- Runbooks
- How I'd run coverage on high-volume days.
- Tools
- Code I've written for monitoring markets and checking results.